🚀 Wilmington, Massachusetts

Investment-Grade Real Estate Market Analysis | October 2025

Median Home Price
$646K
Investment Score
82/100
High School Rating
9/10
AP Pass Rate
81%
Infrastructure Investment
$173M
Value vs Winchester
-46%

🎯 Executive Summary

The Investment Thesis: "The Pre-Appreciation Window"

Wilmington, Massachusetts represents a rare convergence of value arbitrage, infrastructure transformation, and academic excellence that creates a compelling investment opportunity for strategic buyers.

At $646,200 median home value, Wilmington trades at a 46% discount to Winchester ($1.2M) and 57% discount to Lexington ($1.5M), while delivering a 9/10 rated high school, record-setting AP program (81% pass rate), and a $173.3 million infrastructure investment program that will fundamentally transform the town's educational facilities by 2028.

Key Value Proposition

Why Now? The Pre-Appreciation Window

Wilmington is in a calculated transformation phase. The $173M school project opens in 2028, the new North Wilmington commuter rail station eliminates the Route 62 traffic nightmare, and price per square foot is already up 6.2% year-over-year. Smart money enters before the market fully reprices these improved fundamentals.

Investment Timing: Buy in 2025-2026, hold through 2028-2030 school opening and community repricing, target 4-6% annual appreciation plus compression of discount to Winchester/Lexington.

Profile Snapshot

Demographics

Population 23,915
Median HH Income $161,473
Population Growth (since 1990s) +21%

Real Estate

Median Home Value $646,200
Price per SqFt $431
YoY Appreciation +6.2%

Schools

High School Rating 9/10
Graduation Rate 95%
Student-Teacher Ratio 9:1

đź“Š Market Analysis: 526 Sales Deep Dive

Market Snapshot (Based on Recent Sales Data)

Analysis of 526 recent property sales in Wilmington reveals a competitive, velocity-driven market with strong underlying fundamentals and clear price segmentation by neighborhood and property type.

Price Ranges and Market Segmentation

Price Range Property Type Typical Beds/Baths Buyer Profile
$1.3M - $1.9M Luxury Single Family 4-6 bed / 4-6 bath Premium buyers, move-up market
$1.0M - $1.3M Upper-Middle Single Family 3-4 bed / 3-4 bath Established families, executive buyers
$700K - $1.0M Core Market Single Family 3-4 bed / 2-3 bath Primary market, family buyers
$500K - $700K Entry/Mid Single Family 3 bed / 2 bath First-time buyers, value seekers
Under $500K Townhouse/Condo 2-3 bed / 1-2 bath First-time buyers, downsizers

Key Market Metrics

Market Velocity Signals

The 18-day median DOM and 102% sale-to-list ratio indicate a market that has already begun repricing. Strategic buyers recognize Wilmington's fundamentals—the question is whether you will act before the window closes.

Neighborhood Price Segmentation

Premium: Woodville/Montrose

Median Price: $830K

Larger lots, newer construction, proximity to town center. Family-oriented with strong school access.

Core: East Side

Median Price: $698K

Established neighborhoods, solid housing stock, good school access. Value play for strategic buyers.

Value: Downtown

Median Price: $656K

Walkable to town center, mixed housing types, best entry point. Highest upside potential as town improves.

Sales Data Highlights

"Wilmington's market velocity—18-day DOM, 102% of asking, 3 offers deep—indicates a market that has already begun repricing its improved fundamentals. The question isn't whether Wilmington will appreciate, but whether you'll act before the window closes."

🎓 School System Excellence: Above-Average Performance, Elite High School

Wilmington High School: 9/10 Rating, Record-Setting AP Performance

Wilmington High School stands as the crown jewel of the district, delivering elite-level academic outcomes at value pricing. With a 9/10 GreatSchools rating, 95% graduation rate, and 81% AP exam pass rate, WHS rivals the academic performance of districts where homes cost 2x more.

District Overview

MCAS Performance: Consistently Above State Average

Wilmington Public Schools outperforms state averages across all tested subjects and grade levels, with particularly strong performance in mathematics and science.

Subject Wilmington Performance State Average Performance Gap
ELA (Grades 3-8) 45% meet/exceed 41% meet/exceed +4 points
Math (Grades 3-8) 52% meet/exceed 39% meet/exceed +13 points
Science (Grades 5-8) 54% meet/exceed 42% meet/exceed +12 points
HS ELA (Grade 10) 71% meet/exceed - Strong performance
HS Math (Grade 10) 65% meet/exceed 50% meet/exceed +15 points

Wilmington High School: Performance Deep Dive

Academic Outcomes

GreatSchools Rating 9/10
Graduation Rate 95%
Student Retention 95%
Reading Proficiency 72%
Math Proficiency 67%

AP Program Excellence

AP Courses Offered 18
AP Exams Taken (2023-24) 343
AP Pass Rate (3+) 81%
Subjects Above MA Average 15/18

College Placement

Top Destination UMass Amherst
#2 Destination Boston University
#3 Destination UMass Lowell
College Readiness Strong

Record-Setting AP Performance (2023-24)

Wilmington High School celebrated a record-setting year in Advanced Placement exams, with 81% of all scores at 3 or higher and students' mean scores surpassing the Massachusetts state average in 15 different subjects.

AP Subject Tests Taken % Passing (3+) Performance Level
History: World 23 100% 🏆 Perfect
Precalculus 14 100% 🏆 Perfect
Calculus AB 20 95% 🏆 Excellent
History: U.S. 33 94% 🏆 Excellent
English Lit/Comp 13 92% 🏆 Excellent
Govt & Pol: U.S. 16 88% âś… Strong
Physics 1 14 86% âś… Strong
Statistics 30 83% âś… Strong
Psychology 52 73% âś… Good
English Lang/Comp 38 68% âś… Good

Individual School Ratings

School Name Grades Rating Performance Level
Wilmington High School 9-12 9/10 Above average, strong college prep
Woburn Street Elementary K-3 8/10 Above average performance
Wilmington Middle School 6-8 7/10 Above average, supporting strong outcomes
West Intermediate School 4-5 7/10 Above average performance

Special Programs & Curriculum

Investment Implication: Schools Drive Home Values

The 9/10 rated high school with 81% AP pass rate is Wilmington's strongest asset. As the $173M elementary school project completes in 2028 and district ratings improve across all levels, expect the school quality premium to compress the pricing gap with Winchester and Lexington.

Key Insight: You're buying Winchester-caliber high school performance at a 46% discount. That discount will narrow as the market reprices.

🏗️ Infrastructure Investment: $173M Transformation

The Wildwood Elementary Project: A $173.3M Commitment

Wilmington and the Massachusetts School Building Authority are undertaking a transformative $173.3 million capital project to construct a new, state-of-the-art PreK-5 elementary school. This is not a response to growth—it's a strategic investment in educational quality and long-term fiscal efficiency.

Project Details

Tax Impact: Minimal for Maximum Value

Annual Tax Impact (Average Home: $702,889)

Annual Tax Increase $422
Monthly Impact $35
Daily Impact $1.16

Investment Perspective: For $35/month, homeowners gain a brand-new, state-of-the-art elementary school that will serve the community for 50+ years and significantly enhance property values. This is an exceptional ROI.

Strategic Rationale: Efficiency Over Growth

Despite a 27% enrollment decline over 15 years, the district's decision to invest in a single consolidated school is financially strategic:

Scenario Total Cost (Before Stabilization) Strategy
New PK-5 School (Selected) $111.1M âś… Most cost-effective, maximizes state aid
New PK-3 + Repairs $121.7M ❌ Higher cost, piecemeal approach
New PK-K + Extensive Repairs $125.7M ❌ Highest cost, no long-term solution
Repairs Only (Estimated) $70M+ ❌ No state funding, aging infrastructure remains
"The Wildwood project is a calculated long-term investment in quality over quantity. By replacing multiple aging buildings with a single modern facility, the town reduces operating costs, maximizes state aid, and delivers a 21st-century learning environment—all while minimizing taxpayer burden."

Transportation Infrastructure: Dual Rail + Highway Access

Additional Infrastructure Investments

Investment Implication: Infrastructure Drives Appreciation

The $173M school project, new commuter rail station, and 20-year master plan signal a competent, forward-looking municipality. These investments directly support property values and position Wilmington for long-term appreciation.

Historical Precedent: Towns that invest in modern school facilities typically see 5-10% property value increases within 3-5 years of project completion.

⚖️ Competitive Analysis: Wilmington vs. Winchester vs. Lexington

The Value Arbitrage Opportunity

Wilmington delivers comparable academic performance and superior infrastructure momentum at a 45-57% discount to Winchester and Lexington. This price gap represents the core investment thesis.

Metric Wilmington Winchester Lexington
Median Home Value $646,200 $1,200,000 $1,500,000
Price Difference - -46% -57%
High School Rating 9/10 9-10/10 10/10
AP Pass Rate 81% ~85% ~90%
Graduation Rate 95% 97% 98%
Student-Teacher Ratio (HS) 9:1 11:1 12:1
MCAS Math (HS) 65% proficient ~70% proficient ~80% proficient
Infrastructure Investment $173M (2028) Mature/Complete Mature/Complete
Commuter Rail Access 2 stations 2 stations 1 station
Property Tax Rate $11.45 $13.20+ $12.23

Performance Gap Analysis

Wilmington vs. Winchester

Price Difference: -46% ($554K savings)

Academic Gap: Minimal (9/10 vs 9-10/10)

Value Proposition: Near-identical high school performance at half the price

Advantage Wilmington: Lower taxes, better student-teacher ratio, major infrastructure investment underway

Wilmington vs. Lexington

Price Difference: -57% ($854K savings)

Academic Gap: Moderate (9/10 vs 10/10)

Value Proposition: Strong academic performance at less than half the cost

Advantage Wilmington: Lower taxes, better student-teacher ratio, dual rail access

Market Positioning

Current State: Wilmington trades at significant discount due to historical perception

Future State: $173M infrastructure investment will compress discount by 10-20%

Target Price: $750K-$850K by 2030 (16-32% appreciation)

âś… Wilmington Advantages

  • 46-57% lower home prices
  • 9/10 high school rating (81% AP pass rate)
  • 9:1 student-teacher ratio at high school (best of three)
  • $173M infrastructure investment (growth phase)
  • Dual commuter rail access (Lowell + Haverhill)
  • Lower property tax rate ($11.45 vs $12-13+)
  • Strong market velocity (18 days DOM)
  • Pre-appreciation window opportunity

❌ Wilmington Challenges

  • Slightly lower MCAS scores (5-15 points)
  • Less established "prestige" brand
  • 27% enrollment decline (aging demographics)
  • Elementary schools rated 7-8/10 vs 9-10/10
  • Less walkable town center
  • Lower cultural capital score (BPI ranking #69)

The Arbitrage Trade

You're buying a 9/10 high school, 81% AP pass rate, and $173M infrastructure investment at a 46-57% discount to Winchester/Lexington. The academic gap is minimal, the price gap is massive.

Expected Convergence: As the new school opens (2028) and the market reprices Wilmington's fundamentals, expect the discount to narrow by 10-20 percentage points. A $646K home could trade at $750-850K by 2030.

đź’° Investment Thesis & Strategic Opportunities

The Core Thesis: "The Pre-Appreciation Window"

Wilmington represents a rare convergence of:

  • Value Arbitrage: 45-57% below Winchester/Lexington for comparable high school performance
  • Infrastructure Catalyst: $173M school project opening 2028 will repricing fundamentals
  • Market Momentum: 6.2% YoY price appreciation, 18-day DOM, 102% of asking
  • Municipal Competence: 144% above state minimum spending, strategic long-term planning

Investment Window: 2025-2026 (before school completion and market repricing)

Target Hold Period: 3-5 years (through 2028-2030 school opening)

Expected Appreciation: 4-6% annual baseline + discount compression (10-20%)

Target Investment Profiles

Profile #1: The Value Arbitrage Buyer

Profile #2: The Strategic Investor

Profile #3: The Route 128 Professional

Neighborhood-Specific Investment Opportunities

Neighborhood Median Price Investment Grade Opportunity
Downtown $656K A+ (Highest Upside) Most undervalued, walkable, will benefit most from town improvements
East Side $698K A (Strong Value) Established neighborhoods, solid housing stock, good school access
Woodville/Montrose $830K B+ (Quality Play) Premium locations, larger lots, family-oriented, lower risk

Risk Assessment & Mitigation

Key Risks to Consider

  • Enrollment Decline: 27% over 15 years suggests aging demographics, could impact long-term demand
  • Leadership Transition: Interim superintendent for 2025-26; new hire quality will impact district performance
  • Construction Delays: $173M project could face delays or cost overruns (typical for large public projects)
  • Market Repricing: If market already factored in improvements, upside may be limited
  • Competition: Winchester/Lexington continue to improve, maintaining price premium

Risk Mitigation Strategies

Expected Appreciation Scenarios

Scenario Annual Appreciation 5-Year Total Return Purchase Price 2030 Value Gain
Conservative 4% baseline 21.7% $650,000 $791,000 $141,000
Base Case 5% baseline + 10% compression 37.6% $650,000 $895,000 $245,000
Optimistic 6% baseline + 20% compression 54.1% $650,000 $1,001,000 $351,000
"The question isn't whether Wilmington will appreciate—it's whether you'll recognize the opportunity before the market reprices these improved fundamentals. Smart money enters during the construction phase, not after the ribbon-cutting ceremony."

🧮 Investment ROI Calculator

Calculate Your Potential Return

Use this calculator to estimate your potential return on a Wilmington property investment.

Investment Results

đź“‹ Final Recommendations

For Strategic Buyers

âś… BUY WILMINGTON IF:

  • You're priced out of Winchester/Lexington but want comparable high school performance
  • You recognize the $173M infrastructure investment as a value catalyst
  • You can hold for 3-5 years to capture the repricing
  • You value data-driven decision making over social prestige
  • You want dual commuter rail access and Route 128 corridor location

❌ AVOID WILMINGTON IF:

  • You need elite elementary school ratings right now (wait until 2028)
  • You require established "prestige" brand for social capital
  • You're a short-term flipper (3-5 year hold recommended)
  • You're concerned about 27% enrollment decline trend
  • You need walkable, urban-style downtown (town center is suburban)

Action Plan for Buyers

  1. Timeline: Act in 2025-2026 (before 2028 school opening)
  2. Target Price: $600-750K (maximum value and upside)
  3. Focus Neighborhoods: Downtown (highest upside) or East Side (balanced risk/reward)
  4. Due Diligence: Verify school zone for target property, monitor Wildwood project progress
  5. Financing: Lock in rates below 7% if possible, plan for 5-year hold minimum
  6. Exit Strategy: Sell 1-2 years after school opening (2029-2030) or hold long-term

Data Sources & Methodology

This report integrates data from multiple authoritative sources:

"Wilmington represents the rare 'pre-appreciation window'—a convergence of value arbitrage, infrastructure transformation, and academic excellence. The question isn't whether to buy Wilmington, but whether you'll recognize the opportunity before the market does."