How Much House Should You Really Buy? Rethinking the 2×, 3×, and 4× Income Rules

The traditional 2×, 3×, and 4× income rules are incomplete in today's market. What matters more than the income multiple is your income structure, volatility, and trajectory. Two times income provides extraordinary flexibility and resilience. Three times income remains the most broadly sustainable benchmark. Four times income is acceptable only when income is clearly on an upward trajectory. Beyond four times income, you're making a bet on the future. The most reliable test: could your household continue paying the mortgage comfortably on one income, at today's interest rates, for an extended period without panic?

Homebuyers evaluating how much house they can afford, first-time buyers questioning traditional income multiple rules, dual-income households assessing risk, buyers in high-cost markets considering higher multiples, and anyone who wants to understand the real risks behind housing affordability decisions.

• •2× income: Extraordinary flexibility, housing costs <20% of gross income, gold standard for financial resilience
• •3× income: Most broadly sustainable benchmark, mortgage payments 20-25% of gross income, allows proper savings and maintenance
• •4× income: Only appropriate when income is clearly on upward trajectory, mortgage often 30% of gross income, less margin for error
• •5×+ income: Betting on future income growth, requires exceptional income visibility and cash reserves
• •Income structure matters: Dual W-2 earners in same industry face correlated risk, unrelated sectors are more diversified
• •Reliable test: Can household pay mortgage comfortably on one income at today's rates for extended period?
• •Banks optimize for default risk, not household well-being—approval limits are not affordability guidelines