Duxbury MA Real Estate Market Analysis 2025: Complete Guide to $1.26M Median Market

📊Market Snapshot

Duxbury's single-family home market commands a $1,255,000 median price for 3+ bedroom homes, with 67% of recent sales exceeding $1M. Strong appreciation (+7% YoY), excellent schools (A+ rated district), and coastal lifestyle position Duxbury as a premium alternative to Boston's western suburbs at comparable price points.

Market Velocity: 2024-2025 saw 231 sales (avg 10/month). Peak season is summer (21 sales in Aug 2024). Median days on market: 52 days.

Buyer Profile: Average household income $192,249. 82.4% owner-occupied. 34% families with children. 32-minute average commute to Boston.

💰Price Tier Breakdown

Understanding what you get at each price level in Duxbury's market:

🏠Bedroom Configuration Analysis

Market heavily dominated by 4-bedroom homes, which offer best value/SF:

3 BEDROOM HOMES (75 sales - 22% of market): - Median Price: $932,000 - Median Square Feet: 2,153 SF - Median Price/SF: $438/SF - Profile: Entry point for downsizers and first-time Duxbury buyers. Limited inventory creates competition. - Bottom 25% Efficiency: $354/SF at $875K median - significant value opportunity for buyers willing to renovate.

4 BEDROOM HOMES (197 sales - 58% of market): - Median Price: $1,276,000 - Median Square Feet: 2,888 SF - Median Price/SF: $436/SF - Profile: THE DOMINANT CONFIGURATION. Standard Duxbury family home offers best liquidity and value per square foot. - Bottom 25% Efficiency: $327/SF at $925K median - BEST VALUE OPPORTUNITY IN MARKET. Target for renovation/equity capture strategies. - Top 25%: $643/SF at $2.05M - Premium waterfront/estate properties

5 BEDROOM HOMES (54 sales - 16% of market): - Median Price: $2,165,000 - Median Square Feet: 4,213 SF - Median Price/SF: $484/SF - Profile: Premium tier, often waterfront or estate properties with luxury finishes commanding higher $/SF. - Bottom 25% Efficiency: $316/SF at $1.3M - Lowest $/SF in entire market but typically needs $200-300K renovation. High risk/high reward.

📐The Efficiency Sweet Spot: 2,500-3,000 SF

COUNTER-INTUITIVE FINDING: Mid-size homes deliver best value per square foot

The data reveals a U-shaped pricing curve where mid-size homes (2,500-3,000 SF) offer superior value per square foot compared to both smaller and larger properties.

Why 2,500-3,000 SF wins: 1. Optimal efficiency without luxury premium 2. Standard 4BR configuration = maximum liquidity 3. Large enough for families, not so large to require high-end finishes 4. More inventory = better pricing competition 5. Not location-dependent (small homes pay location premium)

📅Market Trends & Timing

YEAR-OVER-YEAR PERFORMANCE: - 2023: 99 sales | $1,220,000 median | $1,387,441 average - 2024: 126 sales | $1,300,000 median | $1,598,316 average (+6.6% YoY) - 2025 YTD: 105 sales | $1,310,000 median | $1,643,957 average (+0.8% YoY) KEY TREND: +7.0% appreciation comparing 2024-2025 period vs pre-2024

QUARTERLY SEASONALITY: - 2024 Q1: 11 sales | $980,000 median (SEASONAL LOW - BEST BUYING) - 2024 Q2: 36 sales | $1,443,000 median (SPRING SURGE - SELLER MARKET) - 2024 Q3: 51 sales | $1,300,000 median (PEAK ACTIVITY) - 2024 Q4: 28 sales | $1,192,500 median (FALL CORRECTION) - 2025 Q1: 15 sales | $1,310,000 median (STABLE) - 2025 Q2: 32 sales | $1,230,000 median (CURRENT) - 2025 Q3: 42 sales | $1,298,000 median (TRENDING)

💵What $1 Million Buys

Critical context: With 67% of sales exceeding $1M, one million dollars represents entry to the MAJORITY of inventory, not the median.

FOUR REAL-WORLD $1M SCENARIOS:

VALUE RECOMMENDATION: Best value at $1M = Scenario 2 (Turnkey) or Scenario 1 (Fixer for equity capture). Avoid Scenario 3 (paying flipper premium) unless aesthetics worth the cost. Choose Scenario 4 only if beach lifestyle is non-negotiable.

📈Duxbury vs Comparable South Shore Towns

HEAD-TO-HEAD COMPARISON: What you get for $1.26M (Duxbury median)

DUXBURY ($1,255,000 median): - Square Feet: 2,866 SF - Config: 4BR/3BA - Price/SF: $445 - Commute: 32 min - Schools: A+ (64% ELA / 58% Math proficiency) - Character: Relaxed coastal, less dense - Beach Access: Excellent (Duxbury Beach + smaller beaches) - Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

HINGHAM ($1,450,000 median - 14% MORE EXPENSIVE): - Square Feet: 2,600 SF (-9% less space) - Config: 4BR/3BA - Price/SF: $495 (+11% more expensive per SF) - Commute: 28 min (-4 min advantage) - Schools: A+ (69% ELA / 62% Math proficiency - SLIGHTLY BETTER) - Character: Upscale suburban, walkable downtown - Beach Access: Good but more crowded - Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ VERDICT: Hingham charges $195K premium for 4-minute shorter commute and slightly better schools. Worth it if commute is paramount.

COHASSET ($1,650,000 median - 24% MORE EXPENSIVE): - Square Feet: 2,400 SF (-16% less space) - Config: 3-4BR/3BA - Price/SF: $520 (+17% more expensive per SF) - Commute: 38 min (+6 min longer than Duxbury) - Schools: A+ (68% ELA / 65% Math proficiency - BEST) - Character: Exclusive, old-money coastal enclave - Beach Access: Excellent, pristine beaches - Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐ VERDICT: Cohasset charges $395K premium for prestige and exclusivity. Longer commute than Duxbury but best schools. Only justified for buyers wanting most exclusive address.

SCITUATE ($1,080,000 median - 16% LESS EXPENSIVE): - Square Feet: 2,900 SF (+1% more space than Duxbury) - Config: 4BR/3BA - Price/SF: $415 (-7% less expensive per SF) - Commute: 42 min (+10 min longer) - Schools: A (59% ELA / 52% Math proficiency - LOWER) - Character: Authentic beach town, less formal - Beach Access: BEST - Extensive beach options - Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ VERDICT: Scituate offers more space for less money but trades school quality (A vs A+) and adds 10 minutes to commute. Best for beach-focused buyers less concerned about schools.

🎓Schools & Education

DUXBURY SCHOOL DISTRICT (A+ Rating): - Total Schools: 4 - Total Students: 2,790 - Spending Per Student: $17,754 - Student/Teacher Ratio: 12-14:1

Test Score Performance (2024 MCAS): - English Language Arts: 64% proficiency - Math: 58% proficiency - Science: 60% proficiency

School Breakdown: - Chandler Elementary (PK-2): 559 students - Alden Elementary (3-5): 606 students - Duxbury Middle (6-8): 666 students - Duxbury High (9-12): 959 students

COMPARISON TO ELITE ALTERNATIVES: Duxbury vs Wellesley: - Test scores: Comparable (Wellesley 72% ELA / 70% Math) - Housing cost: $1.26M vs $1.95M (Duxbury 35% CHEAPER) - Verdict: Similar educational outcomes at significant cost savings Duxbury vs Weston: - Test scores: Comparable (Weston 75% ELA / 72% Math) - Housing cost: $1.26M vs $2.10M (Duxbury 40% CHEAPER) - Verdict: Accept South Shore commute, save $840K

🚗Location & Commute

DISTANCE & DRIVE TIMES: - Boston Financial District: 35 miles | 40-50 min peak - Seaport District: 35 miles | 35-45 min - Cambridge/Kendall Square: 38 miles | 45-55 min - Route 128 Corridor: 25 miles | 20-30 min - Route 495 Corridor: 15 miles | 15-25 min

PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: - Commuter Rail: None (nearest is Greenbush Line in Cohasset/Scituate) - Primary Commute: Car via Route 3 to I-93 - Park & Ride: Available via Kingston/Plymouth stations

COMMUTE COST ANALYSIS: - Annual Commute Hours: ~370 hours - At $200/hour opportunity cost: $74,000/year - Compared to Hingham (315 hours): +$11,000/year in time cost - Housing savings vs Hingham: $195,000 - Break-even timeline: 17 years (housing savings offset by commute time value)

💼Investment Considerations

STRENGTHS: ✓ School District - A+ rated, 64% ELA / 58% Math proficiency ✓ Appreciation - 7% YoY outpacing regional averages ✓ Supply Constrained - Limited buildable land, high owner-occupancy (82%) ✓ Wealthy Demographics - $192K avg HH income supports values ✓ Coastal Premium - Beach access without Cohasset prices ✓ Low Crime - Safety index 71 vs 100 national average ✓ Low Volatility - -7.3% trough-to-peak vs -8.9% Scituate

RISKS: ⚠ Climate Exposure - Hurricane risk index 145 (45% above national average) ⚠ Insurance Costs - $2,500-4,000/year for windstorm/flood coverage ⚠ Commute Length - 32 min average limits buyer pool vs Hingham ⚠ Limited Sub-$1M Inventory - Only 34% of market, high competition ⚠ Seasonality - Spring/summer heavily favor sellers (65% of volume) ⚠ Property Taxes - Premium school funding requires high tax base

APPRECIATION ANALYSIS (10-Year): - 2015 Median: $825,000 - 2025 Median: $1,255,000 - Total Gain: +52% - CAGR: 4.3% annually Compared to: - Hingham: 4.3% (tie) - Cohasset: 3.7% (lower) - Scituate: 4.1% (slightly lower) VERDICT: Duxbury delivered top-tier appreciation among South Shore towns while showing lowest volatility through rate cycle.

CASH FLOW ANALYSIS (Rental Investment): Typical $1.26M Home: - Mortgage P&I (6.5%, 20% down): $5,056/month - Property Tax ($14.82/$1K): $1,550/month - Insurance: $300/month - Maintenance (1%): $1,050/month - Total Carrying Cost: $7,956/month Rental Income Potential: $5,500-6,500/month (4BR) Net Cash Flow: -$1,500 to -$2,500/month (NEGATIVE) VERDICT: Duxbury is NOT a cash flow investment. Buy for appreciation and long-term hold (5+ years). Cap rate ~3-4%.

🌊Climate & Weather Risk

WEATHER RISK INDEX (100 = National Average): - Hurricane: 145 (45% ABOVE AVERAGE) ⚠️ - Wind: 98 (average) - Flood: ELEVATED (coastal location) - Earthquake: 70 (below average) - Tornado: 26 (well below average) - Hail: 48 (below average) - Overall Risk: 91 (slightly below average)

INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS: Average Annual Premiums: - Standard Homeowners: $1,500-2,000 - Windstorm/Hurricane: $1,000-2,000 - Flood (if in zone): $800-1,500 - Total: $2,500-4,000/year 30-Year Total Insurance Cost: $75,000-120,000 Compared to Inland Towns: +$30,000-60,000 over 30 years

✅Actionable Recommendations

FOR VALUE-FOCUSED BUYERS ($900K-$1.2M): 1. TARGET: 4BR homes at 2,500-3,000 SF in $325-375/SF range 2. TIMING: Buy Q1 (Jan-Mar) for 15-20% discount vs spring 3. LOCATION: Central/South Duxbury for best value/SF 4. STRATEGY: Accept cosmetic updates, focus on good bones 5. FINANCING: Pre-approval mandatory, be ready to act in 48 hours 6. EXPECTED OUTCOME: $1.05M all-in cost for $1.25M ARV (after $100K reno)

FOR PRIMARY RESIDENCE FAMILIES ($1.2M-$1.5M): 1. TARGET: Turnkey 4BR/3BA in 2,600-3,000 SF range 2. TIMING: Q4 for motivated sellers, Q1 for selection 3. LOCATION: Verify school district boundaries first 4. STRATEGY: Focus on recent mechanicals, quality neighborhood 5. FINANCING: Conventional 20% down, budget $140-155K/year total housing cost 6. EXPECTED OUTCOME: Move-in ready home in excellent school zone

FOR INVESTORS/FLIPPERS: 1. TARGET: Bottom quartile homes (<$375/SF) with structural soundness 2. TIMING: Q4/Q1 when inventory favors buyers 3. RENOVATION BUDGET: $100-150K for 4BR, $200-300K for 5BR 4. HOLD TIMELINE: 12-18 months minimum 5. EXIT STRATEGY: Sell spring/summer for maximum buyer competition 6. EXPECTED OUTCOME: $150-200K equity capture on 4BR, $300-500K on 5BR

FOR LUXURY BUYERS ($1.5M+): 1. TARGET: Waterfront proximity, unique properties 2. TIMING: Less critical - longer DOM gives negotiating power 3. LOCATION: Focus on water views, privacy, lot premium 4. STRATEGY: Don't optimize for $/SF, prioritize lifestyle features 5. FINANCING: Often cash or jumbo loans 6. EXPECTED OUTCOME: Premium location/lifestyle, lower liquidity

🔮Market Outlook 2025-2026

SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST: Current Inventory: CONSTRAINED - 10 sales/month average (balanced market) - Absorption rate: 2.5-3 months - New construction: LIMITED (buildable land constraints) - Days on market: 52 days (healthy) Expected Trend: Continued supply constraint maintaining price support

PRICE FORECAST (Next 12 Months): Base Case: +3% to +5% appreciation - Median projection: $1,290,000 to $1,318,000 by Q4 2026 - Drivers: Limited supply, strong schools, wealthy buyer pool Bull Case: +6% to +8% appreciation - If: Interest rates drop significantly - If: Remote work increases South Shore appeal Bear Case: 0% to +2% appreciation - If: Recession reduces buyer pool - If: Climate insurance costs spike - If: Interest rates remain elevated Most Likely: +4% appreciation = $1,305,000 median by Nov 2026

BEST OPPORTUNITIES (Next 6-12 Months): 1. Q1 2026 purchases (seasonal discount window) 2. 4BR homes $900K-$1.1M (equity capture plays) 3. Fixer-uppers under $900K (renovation opportunity) 4. Off-water estates $1.5-1.8M (motivated sellers post-peak) 5. Homes 90+ days on market in fall/winter

🎯Final Verdict

DUXBURY IS BEST FOR: ✓ Families prioritizing A+ schools without MetroWest pricing ✓ Buyers wanting coastal New England lifestyle with space/privacy ✓ Remote/hybrid workers who don't commute daily to Boston ✓ Buyers with $1M-$1.5M budget seeking maximum value ✓ Investors seeking stable appreciation in wealthy demographic ✓ Buyers willing to trade 30-40 min commute for $200-400K housing savings

DUXBURY IS NOT IDEAL FOR: ✗ Daily commuters requiring sub-30 minute drive ✗ Buyers requiring walkable downtown/urban amenities ✗ Buyers with budgets under $850K (very limited inventory) ✗ Buyers prioritizing new construction (limited options) ✗ Buyers with extreme climate risk aversion ✗ Cash flow investors (cap rates only 3-4%)

COMPETITIVE POSITIONING: Best value in A+ South Shore tier - 14% cheaper than Hingham for equivalent home - 24% cheaper than Cohasset for equivalent home - 35-40% cheaper than Wellesley/Weston MetroWest alternatives - Comparable schools to all above at significant savings

YOUR DUXBURY BUYING CHECKLIST: Before you start house hunting, make sure you have: - [ ] Budget confirmed: $1M+ with $230K+ cash for down payment/costs - [ ] Pre-approval secured: Mandatory for sub-$1.2M competition - [ ] Timing optimized: Target Q1 (Jan-Mar) or Q4 (Oct-Dec) - [ ] Target size identified: 2,500-3,000 SF sweet spot - [ ] Target zones mapped: Route 3A corridor or South/West Duxbury - [ ] Target price/SF: $325-400/SF for value plays - [ ] School boundaries verified: Confirm Duxbury district - [ ] Insurance quote obtained: Budget $2,500-4,000/year - [ ] Commute tested: Drive to work during peak hours - [ ] Decision criteria set: Know your must-haves vs nice-to-haves - [ ] Contractor identified: If buying fixer-upper - [ ] Agent selected: Choose someone with Duxbury expertise

DATA METHODOLOGY: Dataset: 337 single-family home sales, 3+ bedrooms, 2+ bathrooms Time Period: November 2022 - November 2025 Source: Zillow MLS data, validated against public records Filters: Excludes condos, townhouses, multi-family, land sales Last Updated: November 14, 2025