Duxbury MA Real Estate Market Analysis 2025: Complete Guide to $1.26M Median Market

Duxbury's single-family home market commands a $1,255,000 median price for 3+ bedroom homes, with 67% of recent sales exceeding $1M. Strong appreciation (+7% YoY), excellent schools (A+ rated district), and coastal lifestyle position Duxbury as a premium alternative to Boston's western suburbs at comparable price points.

Market Velocity: 2024-2025 saw 231 sales (avg 10/month). Peak season is summer (21 sales in Aug 2024). Median days on market: 52 days.

Buyer Profile: Average household income $192,249. 82.4% owner-occupied. 34% families with children. 32-minute average commute to Boston.

Understanding what you get at each price level in Duxbury's market:

Market heavily dominated by 4-bedroom homes, which offer best value/SF:

• 3 BEDROOM HOMES (75 sales - 22% of market):
• Median Price: $932,000
• Median Square Feet: 2,153 SF
• Median Price/SF: $438/SF
• Profile: Entry point for downsizers and first-time Duxbury buyers. Limited inventory creates competition.
• Bottom 25% Efficiency: $354/SF at $875K median - significant value opportunity for buyers willing to renovate.

• 4 BEDROOM HOMES (197 sales - 58% of market):
• Median Price: $1,276,000
• Median Square Feet: 2,888 SF
• Median Price/SF: $436/SF
• Profile: THE DOMINANT CONFIGURATION. Standard Duxbury family home offers best liquidity and value per square foot.
• Bottom 25% Efficiency: $327/SF at $925K median - BEST VALUE OPPORTUNITY IN MARKET. Target for renovation/equity capture strategies.
• Top 25%: $643/SF at $2.05M - Premium waterfront/estate properties

• 5 BEDROOM HOMES (54 sales - 16% of market):
• Median Price: $2,165,000
• Median Square Feet: 4,213 SF
• Median Price/SF: $484/SF
• Profile: Premium tier, often waterfront or estate properties with luxury finishes commanding higher $/SF.
• Bottom 25% Efficiency: $316/SF at $1.3M - Lowest $/SF in entire market but typically needs $200-300K renovation. High risk/high reward.

COUNTER-INTUITIVE FINDING: Mid-size homes deliver best value per square foot

The data reveals a U-shaped pricing curve where mid-size homes (2,500-3,000 SF) offer superior value per square foot compared to both smaller and larger properties.

• Why 2,500-3,000 SF wins:
• Optimal efficiency without luxury premium
• Standard 4BR configuration = maximum liquidity
• Large enough for families, not so large to require high-end finishes
• More inventory = better pricing competition
• Not location-dependent (small homes pay location premium)

• YEAR-OVER-YEAR PERFORMANCE:
• 2023: 99 sales | $1,220,000 median | $1,387,441 average
• 2024: 126 sales | $1,300,000 median | $1,598,316 average (+6.6% YoY)
• 2025 YTD: 105 sales | $1,310,000 median | $1,643,957 average (+0.8% YoY)

KEY TREND: +7.0% appreciation comparing 2024-2025 period vs pre-2024

• QUARTERLY SEASONALITY:
• 2024 Q1: 11 sales | $980,000 median (SEASONAL LOW - BEST BUYING)
• 2024 Q2: 36 sales | $1,443,000 median (SPRING SURGE - SELLER MARKET)
• 2024 Q3: 51 sales | $1,300,000 median (PEAK ACTIVITY)
• 2024 Q4: 28 sales | $1,192,500 median (FALL CORRECTION)
• 2025 Q1: 15 sales | $1,310,000 median (STABLE)
• 2025 Q2: 32 sales | $1,230,000 median (CURRENT)
• 2025 Q3: 42 sales | $1,298,000 median (TRENDING)

Critical context: With 67% of sales exceeding $1M, one million dollars represents entry to the MAJORITY of inventory, not the median.

FOUR REAL-WORLD $1M SCENARIOS:

VALUE RECOMMENDATION: Best value at $1M = Scenario 2 (Turnkey) or Scenario 1 (Fixer for equity capture). Avoid Scenario 3 (paying flipper premium) unless aesthetics worth the cost. Choose Scenario 4 only if beach lifestyle is non-negotiable.

HEAD-TO-HEAD COMPARISON: What you get for $1.26M (Duxbury median)

• DUXBURY ($1,255,000 median):
• Square Feet: 2,866 SF
• Config: 4BR/3BA
• Price/SF: $445
• Commute: 32 min
• Schools: A+ (64% ELA / 58% Math proficiency)
• Character: Relaxed coastal, less dense
• Beach Access: Excellent (Duxbury Beach + smaller beaches)
• Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

• HINGHAM ($1,450,000 median - 14% MORE EXPENSIVE):
• Square Feet: 2,600 SF (-9% less space)
• Config: 4BR/3BA
• Price/SF: $495 (+11% more expensive per SF)
• Commute: 28 min (-4 min advantage)
• Schools: A+ (69% ELA / 62% Math proficiency - SLIGHTLY BETTER)
• Character: Upscale suburban, walkable downtown
• Beach Access: Good but more crowded
• Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐⭐

VERDICT: Hingham charges $195K premium for 4-minute shorter commute and slightly better schools. Worth it if commute is paramount.

• COHASSET ($1,650,000 median - 24% MORE EXPENSIVE):
• Square Feet: 2,400 SF (-16% less space)
• Config: 3-4BR/3BA
• Price/SF: $520 (+17% more expensive per SF)
• Commute: 38 min (+6 min longer than Duxbury)
• Schools: A+ (68% ELA / 65% Math proficiency - BEST)
• Character: Exclusive, old-money coastal enclave
• Beach Access: Excellent, pristine beaches
• Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐

VERDICT: Cohasset charges $395K premium for prestige and exclusivity. Longer commute than Duxbury but best schools. Only justified for buyers wanting most exclusive address.

• SCITUATE ($1,080,000 median - 16% LESS EXPENSIVE):
• Square Feet: 2,900 SF (+1% more space than Duxbury)
• Config: 4BR/3BA
• Price/SF: $415 (-7% less expensive per SF)
• Commute: 42 min (+10 min longer)
• Schools: A (59% ELA / 52% Math proficiency - LOWER)
• Character: Authentic beach town, less formal
• Beach Access: BEST - Extensive beach options
• Value Score: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

VERDICT: Scituate offers more space for less money but trades school quality (A vs A+) and adds 10 minutes to commute. Best for beach-focused buyers less concerned about schools.

• DUXBURY SCHOOL DISTRICT (A+ Rating):
• Total Schools: 4
• Total Students: 2,790
• Spending Per Student: $17,754
• Student/Teacher Ratio: 12-14:1

• Test Score Performance (2024 MCAS):
• English Language Arts: 64% proficiency
• Math: 58% proficiency
• Science: 60% proficiency

• School Breakdown:
• Chandler Elementary (PK-2): 559 students
• Alden Elementary (3-5): 606 students
• Duxbury Middle (6-8): 666 students
• Duxbury High (9-12): 959 students

COMPARISON TO ELITE ALTERNATIVES:

• Duxbury vs Wellesley:
• Test scores: Comparable (Wellesley 72% ELA / 70% Math)
• Housing cost: $1.26M vs $1.95M (Duxbury 35% CHEAPER)
• Verdict: Similar educational outcomes at significant cost savings

• Duxbury vs Weston:
• Test scores: Comparable (Weston 75% ELA / 72% Math)
• Housing cost: $1.26M vs $2.10M (Duxbury 40% CHEAPER)
• Verdict: Accept South Shore commute, save $840K

• DISTANCE & DRIVE TIMES:
• Boston Financial District: 35 miles | 40-50 min peak
• Seaport District: 35 miles | 35-45 min
• Cambridge/Kendall Square: 38 miles | 45-55 min
• Route 128 Corridor: 25 miles | 20-30 min
• Route 495 Corridor: 15 miles | 15-25 min

• PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION:
• Commuter Rail: None (nearest is Greenbush Line in Cohasset/Scituate)
• Primary Commute: Car via Route 3 to I-93
• Park & Ride: Available via Kingston/Plymouth stations

• COMMUTE COST ANALYSIS:
• Annual Commute Hours: ~370 hours
• At $200/hour opportunity cost: $74,000/year
• Compared to Hingham (315 hours): +$11,000/year in time cost
• Housing savings vs Hingham: $195,000
• Break-even timeline: 17 years (housing savings offset by commute time value)

STRENGTHS:
✓ School District - A+ rated, 64% ELA / 58% Math proficiency
✓ Appreciation - 7% YoY outpacing regional averages
✓ Supply Constrained - Limited buildable land, high owner-occupancy (82%)
✓ Wealthy Demographics - $192K avg HH income supports values
✓ Coastal Premium - Beach access without Cohasset prices
✓ Low Crime - Safety index 71 vs 100 national average
✓ Low Volatility - -7.3% trough-to-peak vs -8.9% Scituate

RISKS:
⚠ Climate Exposure - Hurricane risk index 145 (45% above national average)
⚠ Insurance Costs - $2,500-4,000/year for windstorm/flood coverage
⚠ Commute Length - 32 min average limits buyer pool vs Hingham
⚠ Limited Sub-$1M Inventory - Only 34% of market, high competition
⚠ Seasonality - Spring/summer heavily favor sellers (65% of volume)
⚠ Property Taxes - Premium school funding requires high tax base

• APPRECIATION ANALYSIS (10-Year):
• 2015 Median: $825,000
• 2025 Median: $1,255,000
• Total Gain: +52%
• CAGR: 4.3% annually

• Compared to:
• Hingham: 4.3% (tie)
• Cohasset: 3.7% (lower)
• Scituate: 4.1% (slightly lower)

VERDICT: Duxbury delivered top-tier appreciation among South Shore towns while showing lowest volatility through rate cycle.

CASH FLOW ANALYSIS (Rental Investment):

• Typical $1.26M Home:
• Mortgage P&I (6.5%, 20% down): $5,056/month
• Property Tax ($14.82/$1K): $1,550/month
• Insurance: $300/month
• Maintenance (1%): $1,050/month
• Total Carrying Cost: $7,956/month

Rental Income Potential: $5,500-6,500/month (4BR)

Net Cash Flow: -$1,500 to -$2,500/month (NEGATIVE)

VERDICT: Duxbury is NOT a cash flow investment. Buy for appreciation and long-term hold (5+ years). Cap rate ~3-4%.

• WEATHER RISK INDEX (100 = National Average):
• Hurricane: 145 (45% ABOVE AVERAGE) ⚠️
• Wind: 98 (average)
• Flood: ELEVATED (coastal location)
• Earthquake: 70 (below average)
• Tornado: 26 (well below average)
• Hail: 48 (below average)
• Overall Risk: 91 (slightly below average)

• INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS:
• Average Annual Premiums:
• Standard Homeowners: $1,500-2,000
• Windstorm/Hurricane: $1,000-2,000
• Flood (if in zone): $800-1,500
• Total: $2,500-4,000/year

30-Year Total Insurance Cost: $75,000-120,000

Compared to Inland Towns: +$30,000-60,000 over 30 years

• FOR VALUE-FOCUSED BUYERS ($900K-$1.2M):
• TARGET: 4BR homes at 2,500-3,000 SF in $325-375/SF range
• TIMING: Buy Q1 (Jan-Mar) for 15-20% discount vs spring
• LOCATION: Central/South Duxbury for best value/SF
• STRATEGY: Accept cosmetic updates, focus on good bones
• FINANCING: Pre-approval mandatory, be ready to act in 48 hours
• EXPECTED OUTCOME: $1.05M all-in cost for $1.25M ARV (after $100K reno)

• FOR PRIMARY RESIDENCE FAMILIES ($1.2M-$1.5M):
• TARGET: Turnkey 4BR/3BA in 2,600-3,000 SF range
• TIMING: Q4 for motivated sellers, Q1 for selection
• LOCATION: Verify school district boundaries first
• STRATEGY: Focus on recent mechanicals, quality neighborhood
• FINANCING: Conventional 20% down, budget $140-155K/year total housing cost
• EXPECTED OUTCOME: Move-in ready home in excellent school zone

• FOR INVESTORS/FLIPPERS:
• TARGET: Bottom quartile homes (<$375/SF) with structural soundness
• TIMING: Q4/Q1 when inventory favors buyers
• RENOVATION BUDGET: $100-150K for 4BR, $200-300K for 5BR
• HOLD TIMELINE: 12-18 months minimum
• EXIT STRATEGY: Sell spring/summer for maximum buyer competition
• EXPECTED OUTCOME: $150-200K equity capture on 4BR, $300-500K on 5BR

• FOR LUXURY BUYERS ($1.5M+):
• TARGET: Waterfront proximity, unique properties
• TIMING: Less critical - longer DOM gives negotiating power
• LOCATION: Focus on water views, privacy, lot premium
• STRATEGY: Don't optimize for $/SF, prioritize lifestyle features
• FINANCING: Often cash or jumbo loans
• EXPECTED OUTCOME: Premium location/lifestyle, lower liquidity

• SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST:
• Current Inventory: CONSTRAINED
• 10 sales/month average (balanced market)
• Absorption rate: 2.5-3 months
• New construction: LIMITED (buildable land constraints)
• Days on market: 52 days (healthy)

Expected Trend: Continued supply constraint maintaining price support

PRICE FORECAST (Next 12 Months):

• Base Case: +3% to +5% appreciation
• Median projection: $1,290,000 to $1,318,000 by Q4 2026
• Drivers: Limited supply, strong schools, wealthy buyer pool

• Bull Case: +6% to +8% appreciation
• If: Interest rates drop significantly
• If: Remote work increases South Shore appeal

• Bear Case: 0% to +2% appreciation
• If: Recession reduces buyer pool
• If: Climate insurance costs spike
• If: Interest rates remain elevated

Most Likely: +4% appreciation = $1,305,000 median by Nov 2026

• BEST OPPORTUNITIES (Next 6-12 Months):
• Q1 2026 purchases (seasonal discount window)
• 4BR homes $900K-$1.1M (equity capture plays)
• Fixer-uppers under $900K (renovation opportunity)
• Off-water estates $1.5-1.8M (motivated sellers post-peak)
• Homes 90+ days on market in fall/winter

DUXBURY IS BEST FOR:
✓ Families prioritizing A+ schools without MetroWest pricing
✓ Buyers wanting coastal New England lifestyle with space/privacy
✓ Remote/hybrid workers who don't commute daily to Boston
✓ Buyers with $1M-$1.5M budget seeking maximum value
✓ Investors seeking stable appreciation in wealthy demographic
✓ Buyers willing to trade 30-40 min commute for $200-400K housing savings

DUXBURY IS NOT IDEAL FOR:
✗ Daily commuters requiring sub-30 minute drive
✗ Buyers requiring walkable downtown/urban amenities
✗ Buyers with budgets under $850K (very limited inventory)
✗ Buyers prioritizing new construction (limited options)
✗ Buyers with extreme climate risk aversion
✗ Cash flow investors (cap rates only 3-4%)

• COMPETITIVE POSITIONING:
• Best value in A+ South Shore tier
• 14% cheaper than Hingham for equivalent home
• 24% cheaper than Cohasset for equivalent home
• 35-40% cheaper than Wellesley/Weston MetroWest alternatives
• Comparable schools to all above at significant savings

YOUR DUXBURY BUYING CHECKLIST:

• Before you start house hunting, make sure you have:
• [ ] Budget confirmed: $1M+ with $230K+ cash for down payment/costs
• [ ] Pre-approval secured: Mandatory for sub-$1.2M competition
• [ ] Timing optimized: Target Q1 (Jan-Mar) or Q4 (Oct-Dec)
• [ ] Target size identified: 2,500-3,000 SF sweet spot
• [ ] Target zones mapped: Route 3A corridor or South/West Duxbury
• [ ] Target price/SF: $325-400/SF for value plays
• [ ] School boundaries verified: Confirm Duxbury district
• [ ] Insurance quote obtained: Budget $2,500-4,000/year
• [ ] Commute tested: Drive to work during peak hours
• [ ] Decision criteria set: Know your must-haves vs nice-to-haves
• [ ] Contractor identified: If buying fixer-upper
• [ ] Agent selected: Choose someone with Duxbury expertise

DATA METHODOLOGY:
Dataset: 337 single-family home sales, 3+ bedrooms, 2+ bathrooms
Time Period: November 2022 - November 2025
Source: Zillow MLS data, validated against public records
Filters: Excludes condos, townhouses, multi-family, land sales
Last Updated: November 14, 2025